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In a report dated September 26, Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil prices, fuel supplies and agriculture. The supplied material describes rising energy costs and risks to future harvests, while leaving some projections and the crisis’s eventual course uncertain.
In a report dated September 26, 2026, Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into oil prices, fuel availability and agricultural risks, including in Europe. The account links the disruption to higher energy costs and potential pressure on future food supplies, while describing an unsettled outlook for the coming winter.
Wojcik writes that US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent, according to the report, which cites the International Energy Agency describing the disruption as the largest the oil market has experienced. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on September 24.
The report says Iran sent Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Washington rejected it, according to Wojcik. The account also describes fuel pressures outside the Gulf: US diesel exceeded $6 a gallon on September 10, while Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and Moscow’s export restrictions contributed to reduced fuel availability.
In France, official figures cited by Wojcik showed 15 percent of stations out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage. Around nine in ten of the affected stations were reportedly operated by TotalEnergies, whose €1.99-per-litre petrol cap drew customers as prices elsewhere rose. The report says the official tally counts a station only when it has run out of all petrol grades or diesel.
How the Strait Reaches European Households
The report’s central point is that a shipping disruption can reach consumers through several linked systems. Oil supports transport and industry, while diesel moves agricultural inputs and food. The Hormuz route also carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report, making a prolonged interruption relevant to planting and harvests beyond the immediate fuel shock.
For Poland, Wojcik connects those pressures to a country that relies on coal and imported gas for heating and is financing expanded arms spending while bordering the war in Ukraine. That perspective highlights the possible overlap between energy dependence, food costs and security spending. The account does not establish that every listed pressure will worsen together, but it shows why a prolonged closure could matter well beyond oil markets.
The effects may arrive on different schedules. Fuel prices can change quickly, while shortages of fertiliser can affect yields later. That delay can make agricultural stress harder to see until harvests are smaller and supply tightens.
A Fragile Ceasefire and Smaller Harvests
A ceasefire earlier in the summer briefly brought oil prices back to pre-war levels, but it did not hold, Wojcik reports. The article describes renewed price increases in September and a possible alternative shipping route exposed to risk: the Red Sea chokepoint of Bab al-Mandab. It says Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port that month. The supplied material does not detail the port seizure or provide a separate source for the claim.
The agricultural picture was already difficult. The report says 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and estimates food-assistance funding fell 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. It attributes to the World Food Programme an estimate that sustained high oil prices could push as many as 45 million additional people into acute food insecurity.
Wojcik also describes a sharp reversal in Europe’s potato market. After a glut that included a Polish harvest of about 7 million tonnes in 2025, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less. Five heatwaves and drought followed. Their growers’ organisation expects a harvest 25 percent smaller, among the decade’s lowest, the report says. These figures describe the source’s account and forecasts; they do not establish the eventual harvest outcome.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited by Tom Wojcik
The Duration and Cost Remain Unsettled
The report does not establish when the strait might reopen or whether a ceasefire can be reached. It says Washington rejected Iran’s proposal and cites one report that the US president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections; that expectation is attributed reporting, not a confirmed future decision.
Several figures are projections or market snapshots, rather than final outcomes. The forecast of a smaller European potato harvest and the World Food Programme’s estimate depend on conditions that may change. The supplied source text also ends partway through its discussion of grain prices, so it does not provide the full figures or the rest of Wojcik’s account of winter heating in Poland.
The scale and duration of the impacts remain unclear. The report documents a sharp fall in tanker traffic and price movements, but does not quantify how long higher costs will persist or how much they will add to household bills.
Watch for Reopening and Harvest Data
The next major developments are whether negotiations produce a durable ceasefire and whether tanker traffic through Hormuz resumes. Changes in shipping volumes, oil prices and the security situation around the Red Sea would help show whether the immediate energy shock is easing.
For food supplies, later 2026 and 2027 harvests will offer a clearer test of the fertiliser disruption and weather damage described in the report. Updates to official fuel-station data in France and crop estimates from European growers can also show how much of the pressure is temporary and how much is reaching consumers and producers.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Polish writer Tom Wojcik’s September 26 report connects the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices, fuel availability and risks to agriculture and food supplies.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
The report says tanker traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran kept the strait closed in March. The supplied material does not give a separate baseline period for that figure.
Was France running out of fuel?
The report says France’s government ruled out a national shortage. Official figures cited in the account showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20; the report links most affected stations to demand at TotalEnergies sites with capped petrol prices.
What does the report say about future food supplies?
It says the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser and cites the FAO warning that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those are expected risks, not reported final harvest results.
When might the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
The report does not give a confirmed reopening date. Iran proposed a phased reopening as part of a ceasefire plan on September 22, but Washington rejected the proposal, according to Wojcik.
Source: hn
